This article started out as a commentary on the internet but turned into a discussion of conspiracy theories. As such it will be broken up into different parts in the near future.
Overview
As with any tool or technology the internet is both awesome and terrifying. The democratisation of information is a wonderful thing but it does rely on the collective intelligence, rationality, and good intentions of the entire population.
The utopia
It’s pretty simple: anyone can publish information and anyone can consume that information. In a forum where everyone can speak and listen without limits great ideas should surface and not-so-great ideas should fall by the wayside. If everyone involved applies critical thinking skills and approaches every new idea with a healthy dose of skepticism society will move on in leaps and bounds.
The reality
The unfortunate fact is that we’re not there yet. I’m not sure if it’s something that has happened just recently or something with a longer history but my observation is that in the past 10-15 years (it’s April 2020 as I write this) there has been a shift away from that and more towards fear, uncertainty and doubt.
There are people out there who genuinely believe the Earth is flat. There are people who really do believe that the human race has never been to the moon and that space is not real. There are people who believe that vaccines are bad for you and that doctors are only in it for the money.
I wonder how large these groups of people really are or whether it’s simply an effect of the democratisation of the internet. It’s always been the case that the loudest voices tend to get the most attention but in a world where anyone can artificially amplify their voice which can then get further amplified by others it’s not always the best or most accurate ideas the reach the farthest.
Add in the tendency for people to assume accuracy where it’s not warranted and you get a melting pot of information of varying substance and quality. Inaccurate and unsubstantiated information used to only be available in tabloid newspapers but it’s now everywhere, and even when tabloids ruled there were regulatory bodies that ensured they staying within certain limits. It’s now a free-for-all and it’s hard to avoid the feeling that society is generally worse off for it.
Education
One possibility is that most of the world’s education systems appear to prioritise getting students through exams rather than teaching the skills required to learn and make good, fact-based decisions.
The trend of attempting to measure student’s progress through standardised testing appears to be past its peak but there’s still an emphasis on results. I’d much rather employ someone who can see flat earth and anti-vax propaganda and not buy it than someone who can ace a multiple choice exam. When faced with a brand new challenge which do you think will fair better?
Critical thinking, skepticism and an evidence-based approach is what moves everything forward. No new technology has ever come from continuing to do things the way they’ve always been done. No GDP improvement has ever come from maintaining the status quo. Progress comes from pushing the envelope, examining each new idea for flaws, open and comprehensive discussion, compassion, compromise and modesty, and it will only happen if we’re teaching the next generation to think that way.
Evidence in politics
Donald Trump and Brexit.
These things are just the latest in a series of strange happenings that I’ve observed recently. I live in the UK and tend to also vaguely follow US politics. While it’s possible it’s simply that my own views are almost diametrically opposed to these outcomes I try very hard to make sure my views are as rational as possible and neither of the above outcomes or many others in recent years feel at all rational.
I strongly believe that politics should be driven by two occasionally opposing forces: what’s best for the people and the will of the people. It seems that recently we’ve swerved too far into the latter.
The problem I think is that the views that get people there naturally close themselves off to criticism. As with all conspiracy-like ideas if you’re arguing against it you’re in on the conspiracy, or you’ve fallen for it. The ones who “see through it” are the enlightened ones. It used to be that quiet, inoffensive fringes believed in conspiracies, and maybe that’s still true. Maybe the lower bar for publishing information has the effect of making those groups seem larger than they are.
Is it dangerous?
Yes. Even if it’s just the internet giving a bigger voice to the conspiracy believers it’s still potentially very dangerous.
Taking the most obvious example, if a parent is convinced that vaccines are dangerous to their kids they won’t have their kids vaccinated. This directly impairs the effect of herd immunity which is required for vaccines to work. The more unvaccinated people out there the more likely those who cannot get vaccinations for whatever reason will become sick. Many diseases we vaccinate for kill significant numbers of the people who actually get the disease.
Looking at the bigger picture, if someone doesn’t believe we went to the moon, or that space is not real, or that astrology is true, they will vote with the candidate who appears to share their beliefs, no matter how tenuous the link is between their own beliefs and the politician’s.
This brings me to my last point, which is religion.
Religion
My own experience with religion has left a bitter taste in my mouth but taking a step back it’s clear to me that the ability to accept the mythology of a religion as true is basically the same act as believing any of the bogus ideas discussed above. Take a thing for which you have no good evidence and believe it without question.
Religions have the ability to get their believers to do unspeakable things in the name of that religion, something of which some of them have and do repeatedly take advantage, seemingly without a second thought. Whether there’s a connection between the continuing popularity of these belief systems and the other beliefs that are listed above is something I can’t justify, but it doesn’t seem a million miles away.